Link do publikacji, która szczegółowo porównuje ceny wynoszenia ładunków na orbitę z całej historii astronautyki.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiixKap9M_hAhUtxMQBHdyNBQIQFjAAegQIAhAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fttu-ir.tdl.org%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F2346%2F74082%2FICES_2018_81.pdf%3Fsequence%3D1%26isAllowed%3Dy&usg=AOvVaw3fd-rLcIxSuvlZhsSwL49nDokument pokazuje jak ogromny postęp w kosztach lotów dokonał się pomiędzy pierwszymi lotami a stworzeniem Saturna V, po to by w latach 1970 - 2000 pozostać na tym samym poziomie. Widać jak na dłoni na czym polegała stagnacja w branży. I jak zadziałała konkurencja w ostatnich latach.
The average launch cost did not change much from 1970 to 2000, especially since many systems with initial
flight before 2000 continue to be used. From 1970 to 2000 the average launch cost was $18.5 k/kg, with a typical
range of $10 to $32 k/kg. Of the 22 systems initially launched from 1970 to 2000, only 7 have costs below $10 k/kg,
and they are all Soviet or Chinese and their cost may be subsidized. Only 2 systems have costs above $32 k/kg, the
shuttle at $61.7 k/kg and the small and costly Pegasus.
A major drop in cost occurred in 2010 with the Falcon 9 at $2.7 k/kg. The Falcon Heavy reduces the cost to $1.4
k/kg. Shuttle’s launch cost was about 20 times that of the Falcon 9 and about 40 times that of the Falcon Heavy.
The
average 1970 to 2000 launch cost of $18.5 k/kg is reduced by a factor of 7 for the Falcon 9 and and 13 for the
Falcon Heavy.I w temacie tego, ile kosztują opracowania nowych rozwiązań przez NASA, a ile w firmach prywatnych. Z dedykacją dla tych, którzy piszą, że "istnienie SpaceX nie ma wielkiego sensu".
In 2010, NASA compared SpaceX’s cost to develop the Falcon 9 to the cost NASA’s models predicted using the
traditional cost-plus-fee method. Using the NASA-AF Cost Model (NAFCOM), NASA estimated that it would have
cost NASA $1,383 million to develop these systems using traditional contracting. The estimated SpaceX cost was
$443 million, a 68% reduction from the traditional approach. SpaceX attributed their cost efficiencies to a few key
factors:
1. Smaller workforce
2. Use of in-house development
3. Fewer management layers and less infrastructure
4. Commercial development culture
Perhaps the the key determinant of SpaceX’s lower cost was that modern management allowed a highly effective
engineering effort. “SpaceX’s approach to rocket design, which stems from one core principle: Simplicity enables
both reliability and low cost.” All the Falcon 9 engines are identical where other rockets use two or three to gain
performance at higher cost. The Falcon 9 avionics and controls are triple-redundant. Elon Musk, SpaceX’s CEO, is
also chief engineer and he claims. “I know my rocket inside out and backward.” The frequent management -
engineering conflict of goals and communications gap seem eliminated. SpaceX’s organizational style is Silicon
Valley, not NASA. “(T)he buzzwords of the business culture—lean manufacturing, vertical integration, flat
International Conference on Environmental Systems management—are real and fundamental. …
This really is the greatest innovation of SpaceX: It’s bringing the standard practices of every other industry to space.” (Chaikin, 2012)
Table A1. Launch cost to LEO in current dollars.
System First launch date $k/kg Reference
Ariane 44 1988 17.9 Wertz and Larson, 1996
Ariane 5G 1996 13.1 Futron, 2002
Athena 1 1995 31.7 Wertz and Larson, 1996
Athena 2 1995 16.6 Futron, 2002
Atlas IIA 1991 19.8 Wertz and Larson, 1996
Atlas-Centaur 1964 28.0 Koelle, 1991
Cosmos 1967 12.4 Futron, 2002
Delta 3910 1975 28.0 Koelle, 1991
Delta E 1960 167.8 Koelle, 1991
Delta II 1989 15.3 Futron, 2002
Delta III 1998 11.7 Koelle, 1991
Dnepr 1999 4.9 Futron, 2002
Falcon 9 2010 2.7 SpaceX.com, 2018
Falcon Heavy 2018 1.4 SpaceX.com, 2018H-2 1994 26.4 Wertz and Larson, 1996
Kosmos 1967 8.0 Wikipedia, Comparison, 2018
Long March 2C 1974 10 Futron, 2002
Long March 2E 1971 7.7 Wertz and Larson, 1996
Long March 3B 1984 6.3 Futron, 2002
Pegasus XL 1990 43.5 Futron, 2002
Proton SL-13 1965 4.1 Wertz and Larson, 1996
Rockot 1994 10.4 Futron, 2002
Saturn V 1968 5.2 Williams, 2016
Saturn IB 1966 17.3 Koelle, 1991
Scout 1961 111.8 Koelle, 1991
Space shuttle 1981 61.7 Pielke and Byerly, 2011
Soyuz 1966 7.6 Futron, 2002
Start 1993 16.7 Futron, 2002
Taurus 1989 20.4 Wertz and Larson, 1996
Titan II 1962 31.0 Wertz and Larson, 1996
Titan IV 1989 24.7 Wertz and Larson, 1996
Titan-Centaur 1974 11.2 Koelle, 1991
Vanguard 1957 894.7 Koelle, 1991
Vega 2012 10.0 Wikipedia, Comparison, 2018
Zenit 2 1985 4.4 Futron, 2002
Zenit 3SL 1999 7.6 Futron, 2002